Ukraine: Officials from Ukraine are asserting that their military action into Russia this month is occurring at the same time as a series of diplomatic efforts that could bolster Kyiv’s quest for broader international support for its negotiating stance in any future peace discussions.
This diplomatic strategy has included efforts to engage neutral countries or those with ties to Russia, such as China and India. Furthermore, Ukraine pointed to an upcoming visit by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India to Kyiv as proof that diplomatic success is intertwined with its military operations in Russia.
“It’s crucial to have diplomatic proof that the situation is more complex, and these nations also respect Ukraine and interact with it under these circumstances,” Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, stated in an interview, in reference to Prime Minister Modi’s visit. In July, Mr. Kuleba made a trip to China as the Ukrainian military was readying its incursion, expressing support for China’s involvement in a peace process.
Leaders of countries backing Ukraine, including President Biden, have made trips to Kyiv throughout the conflict. Prime Minister Modi’s visit stands out as the most prominent by a leader of a nation with significant trade ties to Russia and a political stance of neutrality on the conflict.
Indian officials have indicated they are not looking to play a mediating role but will facilitate communications between Ukraine and Russia if asked. India is viewed as interested in a resolution to the conflict to prevent further isolation of Russia in the international community, which could lead to Moscow forming closer ties with China, India’s rival in Asia.
However, India has been cautious in dealing with the two warring parties. While Prime Minister Modi is in Kyiv on Friday, he made a trip to Moscow earlier in the summer, where he was photographed embracing President Vladimir V. Putin on the same day a Russian cruise missile hit a children’s hospital in Ukraine, killing and injuring patients and medical staff.
Economically, India continues to be a significant trading partner for Russia, and has supported the Russian economy by purchasing oil at discounted prices from companies sanctioned by the European Union and the United States.
At the same time, Prime Minister Modi publicly criticized Russia over the invasion in early 2022, stating at a meeting that “it is not the time for war.” Now, Prime Minister Modi is scheduled to be in Kyiv despite Ukrainian forces having taken control of a large area in Russia.
The visit, according to Mr. Kuleba, is a significant diplomatic achievement for Kyiv in its push to encourage neutral countries to maintain balanced relations with the countries involved in the conflict. He also emphasized that Ukraine is not seeking India to act as a mediator in any potential peace talks.
Military experts have expressed doubts about Ukraine’s ability to maintain control over the territory it has taken in Russia, and there are currently no scheduled peace talks. Ukraine has shifted its forces from defending within its borders to attacking in Russia, and its defensive lines are vulnerable near the strategic eastern Ukrainian town of Pokrovsk.
However, Mr. Kuleba expressed that the recent assault on Russia, where numerous specialized military groups swiftly breached border fortifications and captured numerous captives, demonstrated that Ukraine is capable of taking the lead, following Russia’s extensive invasion two and a half years ago.
He stated that this action goes against the main argument commonly seen in the West regarding the war stalemate. We demonstrated that Russia’s strength is not as formidable as it claims. Furthermore, we proved that there are various battlefields in this conflict.
He stated that Ukraine is simultaneously advancing both the military and diplomatic approaches.
After Ukraine’s invasion across borders, Mr. Putin has stated he will not engage in negotiations as long as Ukrainian soldiers remain on Russian soil. However, Mr. Kuleba noted that Russia has previously compromised during the conflict, reducing its requests in initial ceasefire discussions when Ukraine pushed back Russian invaders near Kyiv and arranging safe travel for grain ships following opposition from developing countries concerned about increased food costs.
He pointed out that prior to the start of the major invasion and in its aftermath, the question was slightly altered: How much longer could Ukraine resist Russia’s advances? The response came in just under a week. Today, we’re discussing the duration that Ukraine can withstand in the Kursk region. Regarding the war effort, I believe it’s a beneficial shift.
Ukraine is actively striving to gain broad global support for its negotiating position in possible discussions. In June, Kyiv hosted a peace conference in Switzerland which supported three confidence-building measures in Ukraine’s strategy: ensuring the export of grains, protecting energy facilities, and repatriating civilians sent to Russia.
However, those measures signified a reduced plan for Ukraine, which surfaced following the refusal of India and other nations to endorse Ukraine’s complete 10-point proposal. India ultimately participated in the summit but refrained from endorsing the communiqué due to its disagreement with the diplomatic arrangement that did not involve Russia.
India purchases grain and agricultural products from Ukraine, and like other developing countries, experienced higher food prices due to Russia’s naval blockade on Ukrainian ports. Following Russia’s departure from the agreement on grain transportation, Ukraine reopened a route for shipping by using explosive sea drones to attack Russia’s fleet, causing their ships to move away from the Ukrainian coast and preventing them from imposing a blockade.
However, there are still potential dangers for food exports that may lead to increased prices in developing countries.
Analysts predict that there will be discussions about trade between Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Modi. However, the Indian leader being in Kyiv may be the more important development.
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