The protests that have erupted in Iran and continue night after night have raised a great concern among the leaders of the region and the world regarding the downfall of the Islamic Republic which is a major event that would be upon world geopolitics and energy markets like a mushroom cloud.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s regime has been able to handle the protest waves multiple times but the one that started two weeks ago has grown – the number of participants is estimated to be in hundreds of thousands who have defied the authorities’ threats and brutal crackdowns to demonstrate during the weekend not only in the capital Tehran but also in many other cities of the nation of 90 million. They are backed by President Donald Trump, who just took down Nicolas Maduro, and the US leader has alarmingly hinted to Iran about potential military action, thus suggesting that the US is back in the regime change business.
World leaders and investors are closely watching the situation. A White House official disclosed that US commanders have already presented Trump with military strike options.
Trump stated on Sunday that he was keeping a close watch on the developments in Iran. “We’re taking it with utmost seriousness,” he said to the reporters on Air Force One. “The military is also looking at it and we are considering some very strong options.”
Brent crude prices jumped more than 5 percent on Thursday and Friday to reach $63 a barrel as the market participants have included the potential supply disruptions in the scenario of the fourth-largest OPEC oil-exporter country.
“This is the greatest event in Iran since 1979,” claimed William Usher, a top Middle East analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency, pointing to the revolution that established the Islamic Republic, reshaped the power dynamics in the area, and caused a confrontation between Tehran and the US and its allies lasting for decades.
“The market has now turned its focus on Iran,” noted Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management, a company that assists its clients in managing risk in energy markets. “A concern is also that the US, under Trump, could make a move to topple the Iranian regime by taking advantage of the confusion just like what happened in Venezuela.”
The White House is in a celebratory mood after not only the operation against Maduro’s success using tactics but also Trump’s decision to nuke Iranian atomic facilities at the end of the 12-day war. The US officials are also putting Denmark under pressure to give up its possession of Greenland, which is a clear indication that the government is in the mood for more international ventures.
Although on the one hand, the situations might be full of risks, on the other hand, Trump could be easily lured into attempting to get rid of a regime that has been a bitter enemy of the US and Israel for more than 45 years.
“The power structure would be altered substantially,” said Mark Mobius, the old hand in emerging markets investing, commenting on the possible fall of the theocracy. “The optimal scenario would be an entire turnover of the administration. The negative scenario would be continuing strife and the existing regime being the ruler.”
Trump occasionally opposed the US imperialism in the region where the downfall of longstanding US foe Saddam Hussein in Iraq led to a generation of disorder and terrorism, at a cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and trillions of dollars.
It is precisely that kind of potential vacuum that Arab rulers in the Gulf Cooperation Council find so alarming, as per the regional officials’ statements. Though the group – which consists of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar – has usually regarded Iran as a rival, its members have in recent years tried to cultivate relations so as to avoid a situation where Tehran would react violently to any Israeli or US military move.
Trump Urges Iran Protesters to Persist as Death Toll Rises
US President Donald Trump has called out for the Iranian people to keep protesting the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s regime as activist organizations have alerted that thousands might have perished during violent unrest that has lasted more than two weeks.
“KEEP PROTESTING – TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday, adding that he had stopped all meetings with Iranian diplomats until the shooting of protesters ceased. “HELP IS ON ITS WAY,” he said, but did not elaborate further on what that meant.
The Human Rights Activists News Agency, based in the US, remarked that around 2,000 individuals had perished in the course of the Iranian protests and this had made the movement the deadliest one in the Islamic Republic for decades, hence posing the most serious threat to Khamenei’s reign.
According to the HRANA, among the dead were 1,850 protestors, 135 individuals aligned with the government, nine minors, and nine additional civilians who were not part of the protests.
Before the Oslo-based Iran Human Rights group published its report, the organization warned that the “risk of mass and extrajudicial executions of protesters is extremely serious.” The group indicated that one protestor, 26-year-old Erfan Soltani, is at risk of being executed on Wednesday, which is less than a week after his arrest in the city of Fardis.
IHR has raised its estimate of the number of deaths to over 6,000. According to comments made on Tuesday, during a visit to India, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has prophesied that the Islamic Republic is in its “final days” and “practically finished.”
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